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Ragozin Data & Publishing Co. LLC Ragozin Data Sheets Bulletin Board
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Tue 30 May 2023 08:46 AM
General Handicapping Len Friedman says---
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(99 Msgs in forum)    LastPost: May-30 8:47 AM
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  The Preakness at Pimlico [Reply]
         The scratch of First Mission obviously takes a lot of the value out of the race, since he was one of the three likeliest winners but had taken the worst of the post-position draw, just as surely as National Treasure got the best of it.
         In reverse order:

    Chase the Chaos—Not sure what he’s doing in here, aside from qualifying for the race based on a win over poly. At least Two Phil’s had dirt numbers that weren’t awful going into the Derby.

    Coffeewithchris—He’s the one remaining horse with enough early speed to press National Treasure, but just isn’t good enough and loses lasix.

    Perform—Connections supplemented him for $150G and he’s got some nice works for a formidable trainer. But while the late spurt in the Tesio was visually dazzling, it came during a final eighth that went in 13.3, his numbers are mediocre and he’s off the meds.

    Red Route One—Liked him in the Rebel, but he hasn’t progressed in the two races since. Pace doesn’t figure to be sizzling, and most likely scenario is Joel stays inside and gets horse running late to complete the super.

    Blazing Sevens—He’s picked up some checks in big races without being particularly impressive, and his only single-digit number came over a sloppy track amid a pace collapse. Think he’ll improve here for Chad, but not enough to get into the exacta.

    Mage—It seemed possible, before First Mission scratched, that he might hold at 8-5 or drift a shade higher. Now, it’s hard to see anything better than 4-5, and while he continues to impress, wouldn’t count on him pairing or exceeding the Derby number, regardless of Delgado’s good stats with quick turnarounds in cheaper races. Seems reasonable to expect a 2-point regression, and while that might be good enough to win, the price won’t be good enough to bet him on that assumption. Will look to beat him while reversing the exacta.

    National Treasure—Wouldn’t have thought six months ago that this would be Bullet Bob’s big horse for the Triple Crown races, but here we are and his line makes sense off the quarter-point new top six weeks ago, as Vito noted. As long as he breaks decently, Johnny should be able to control the pace, and while he’s had trouble passing horses, he may not have to here. Had expected the tactical advantage to knock his price down to 3-1 before the scratch; now will hope for 2-1 and $12 on the exacta. Not much to get excited about, but he’s the logical key.

    Good luck to all.

    Posted by cartouche   on May-19 12:35 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

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