The scratch of First Mission obviously takes a lot of the value out of
the race, since he was one of the three likeliest winners but had taken the
worst of the post-position draw, just as surely as National Treasure got
the best of it.
In reverse order:
Chaos—Not sure what he’s doing in here, aside from qualifying for the race
based on a win over poly. At least Two Phil’s had dirt numbers that weren’t
awful going into the Derby.
one remaining horse with enough early speed to press National Treasure, but
just isn’t good enough and loses lasix.
Perform—Connections supplemented him for $150G and he’s got some nice works
for a formidable trainer. But while the late spurt in the Tesio was
visually dazzling, it came during a final eighth that went in 13.3, his
numbers are mediocre and he’s off the meds.
One—Liked him in the Rebel, but he hasn’t progressed in the two races
since. Pace doesn’t figure to be sizzling, and most likely scenario is Joel
stays inside and gets horse running late to complete the super.
Blazing Sevens—He’s picked up some checks in big races
without being particularly impressive, and his only single-digit number
came over a sloppy track amid a pace collapse. Think he’ll improve here for
Chad, but not enough to get into the exacta.
seemed possible, before First Mission scratched, that he might hold at 8-5
or drift a shade higher. Now, it’s hard to see anything better than 4-5,
and while he continues to impress, wouldn’t count on him pairing or
exceeding the Derby number, regardless of Delgado’s good stats with quick
turnarounds in cheaper races. Seems reasonable to expect a 2-point
regression, and while that might be good enough to win, the price won’t be
good enough to bet him on that assumption. Will look to beat him while
reversing the exacta.
National Treasure—Wouldn’t have
thought six months ago that this would be Bullet Bob’s big horse for the
Triple Crown races, but here we are and his line makes sense off the
quarter-point new top six weeks ago, as Vito noted. As long as he breaks
decently, Johnny should be able to control the pace, and while he’s had
trouble passing horses, he may not have to here. Had expected the tactical
advantage to knock his price down to 3-1 before the scratch; now will hope
for 2-1 and $12 on the exacta. Not much to get excited about, but he’s the
Good luck to all.
Posted by cartouche
on May-19 12:35 PM
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