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Ragozin Data & Publishing Co. LLC Ragozin Data Sheets Bulletin Board
Last post to board:
Tue 30 May 2023 08:46 AM
FORUMS
General Handicapping Len Friedman says---
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(26 Msgs in forum)    LastPost: May-29 6:30 PM
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  Individual Horse Numbers Click here to view this message
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    NEW - Individual horse numbers can now be purchased online for the major tracks. Updated every Tuesday night between 11:00 PM and 11:30 PM. COST - $30 per individual horse - includes the entire sheet.
    *Posted by BoardMgr   on Sep-25 19 2:02 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2842014] *   [IP Addr= 173.245.52.66]
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  View this board without a password Click here to view this message
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     You may now view and read this board without having to log in with a password.
    However, you will still need a password to post on this board.
    If you do not have a password we urge you to create one so that you can make full use of all the board features.
     
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  Different view Click here to view this message
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  ZOOM SCHEDULE 6/1-6/4 Click here to view this message
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  ZOOM SCHEDULE 5/26-5/29 Click here to view this message
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  A Rare Opportunity Click here to view this message
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     With the BB apparently down I can plunk away without worrying about the inevitable morning after dread. Should this ever see the light of day I have in the words of a Biden "plausible deniability". God I hope so.

    Wow. Who would have thought yours truly would get stage fright? But when he gets to the end, wants to start it all over again?

    Did you ever want to change your life but your options were limited? Of course we are talking about money, which washes over everything, but also about choices made long ago under different circumstances. We truly make the bed we are to lay in.

    Every day I look at the world through my window. As long as I gaze on Waterloo sunset I am in Paradise, except I live in corrupt Chicago where the criminals rule the streets, and the District Attorneys empty the jails and fail to prosecute felons who roam the streets with impunity. Go to Hell Kim Fox. 



    Posted by Gary Mc   on May-22 9:22 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

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  working on getting new set up Click here to view this message
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May-25
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  Re; re;The Preakness Click here to view this message
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     Assuming there is a BES-Preakness Double, there is a fast 2YO filly who has struggled to find her way at 3 BUT was working lights out at CD hoping to draw into the Ky Oaks...she will be full value if they pound Faiza...the fact they are eager to run HP tells me what happened at FG was not a big deal...
     
    Posted by Glacken   on May-16 9:27 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892091]   [IP Addr= 172.70.42.237]
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  FRi SAT PIM will go ONLINE TUE AM Click here to view this message
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  zoom schedule 5/18-5/21 Click here to view this message
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  The king of pharoahs? Click here to view this message
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     Welcome back Mr. Dutrow!  RD2 is alive and well and I, for one, am happy to celebrate his return (although not being sharp enough to join in the cashing).  As a disclaimer I must confess my feelings are colored by the many very enjoyable conversations I had with RD2 when he consulted the SHEETs on his horses' performances.

    RD2 may have stretched things a bit in the past but that draconian suspension was so out of line with what others who were certainly as questionable or more have received (not to mention several others still training who are untouched as yet although SJ2 is finally encountering some well earned backlash).

    RD2 was quoted in the DRF as saying that his weekend winner Prince of Pharaohs appeared to have just run his race while others didn't really show up at all, but they just cashed their bets and moved on.  His view of the race was right on as PoP just paired up his last number and the final comment was vintage Dutrow understated humor.  He was also quoted as saying he liked a hose he has entered for this upcoming Thursday at BEL and I can't wait to see the odds on that one.

    I hate to be in the position of shilling for action, but I would love it if RD2 would once again consult us on his horses' numbers and I could enjoy many more delightful conversations with an entertaining, gracious and superior trainer.




    Posted by Robespierre   on May-08 5:42 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891857]   [IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies gbubrick
May-12
  ZOOM SCHEDULE 5/11-5/14 Click here to view this message
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  The Kentucky Derby Click here to view this message
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     Gary, the Arkansas Derby has always been known for too-fast early fractions, and by that standard the opening half was nothing special and 1:12 and change was downright slow. 
    Posted by cartouche   on May-06 9:33 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891792]   [IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Gary Mc
May-06
  Full card Fri/Sat CD online NOW Click here to view this message
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  Derma Sotogake Click here to view this message
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  Derby Seminar Info Click here to view this message
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  NO ZOOM 5/4-5/7 Click here to view this message
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Apr-30
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(99 Msgs in forum)    LastPost: May-30 8:47 AM
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  re;BBT RECORD Click here to view this message
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  The Hollywood Gold Cup at SA R.8 Click here to view this message
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         It's not often that you're given a good opportunity to beat not one but two short-priced Baffert horses, so it's worth making the most of it, even when the state of the Bulletin Board makes this feel a bit like a message in a bottle.

         In reverse order:

    Yes This Time--Glatt is a smart horseman, and he's no doubt aware that this horse's only dirt race was a stinker for Stidham. What he's doing here, I don't know.

    Kiss Today Goodbye--Something went wrong with this horse 17 months ago, and sending him farther than he's ever gone doesn't figure to fix it, even off a decent last race.

    Piroli--Big jump-up two back, and a sizable bounce despite nearly two months to replenish followed. Running back 16 days later doesn't figure to produce much of a recovery.

    Defunded--The 4-5 favorite figures to be loose on the lead, and maybe Hernandez can back things down enough to prevent a late stagger of the sort that got him narrowly beaten in two previous tries at this route, one of them in this race last year. Besides that, he's off a quarter-point top last time, and every single-digit number he's run has been followed by a reaction, even when he had nearly two months off last fall. At the odds, will toss him from the exacta.

    Country Grammer--He's run three excellent races in the Middle East the last two years, so the clunker in his bid for a repeat in the Dubai World Cup was either a bad reaction to the 2-point new top in the Saudi Cup or a sign that at 6 the big number has triggered a long-term decline. Recent works for Bullet Bob suggest he's ready to roll, and he won this race two years ago, but if he can't do better than his usual good American number, think he's vulnerable at 8-5 and probably lower. Will try to beat him but reverse the exacta.

    Senor Buscador--Horse who had some physical issues early in his career came back strong last year off the lengthy layoff, with two one-turn numbers minus lasix that would make him very tough here if he can go this far. He's been on the meds for both starts this year, including last out when he got squeezed early at Oaklawn, but breeding suggests he can stretch and he gets a significant rider switch to Senor Saez. Think Luis will have him closer early this time and could produce a new top. At 5-1, the price is right, and he's the key.

    Good luck to all.   

     

    Posted by cartouche   on May-28 7:18 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892343]   [IP Addr= 173.245.52.98]
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  Is this on? Click here to view this message
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  The Soaring Softly at Belmont R.7 Click here to view this message
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         Lean pickings for a Saturday, but a curious morning line offers the possibility of getting value going against the favorite, if the bettors cooperate.
         In reverse order:

    Quarrel—Won her only turf start but number wasn’t much, and Ribaudo not much off layoffs.

    Senior Prank—The longer of Chad’s pair had a so-so turf debut behind today’s favorite. Expect improvement, but not enough.

    Love Appeals—She’s that favorite, but the new top last time came on lasix, and her only race without it was mediocre. Even getting Joel, at 6-5 will toss her.

    Queen Picasso—The longer of Clement’s duo is royally bred, and while she’s also off the meds has yet to indicate she’s not the same without them. At 5-1, may get into the exacta.

    American Apple—She’s both the most-experienced and most-accomplished filly here, so have to figure she’s 4-1 because of the low-profile trainer. Because between the big-balloons win in the Matron last fall and a sweet pattern since, if anyone deserves to be a short-priced favorite, she’s the one. Even a small improvement would make her very tough here, and if the odds gap widens between her and my top pick, she’s a defensible key.

    Lady Beth—Shares the fastest number with American Apple, although in her case it came on lasix and over the poly when her turf race was rained off. Has been away for nearly four months, but this is Chad we’re talking about, and she also has good breeding, the rail and Prat in her favor. Would be surprised if 7-2 holds, but at 5-2 still would like her chances enough to key her.

    Good luck to all.
      

    Posted by cartouche   on May-26 2:42 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892310]   [IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
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  The Preakness at Pimlico Click here to view this message
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         The scratch of First Mission obviously takes a lot of the value out of the race, since he was one of the three likeliest winners but had taken the worst of the post-position draw, just as surely as National Treasure got the best of it.
         In reverse order:

    Chase the Chaos—Not sure what he’s doing in here, aside from qualifying for the race based on a win over poly. At least Two Phil’s had dirt numbers that weren’t awful going into the Derby.

    Coffeewithchris—He’s the one remaining horse with enough early speed to press National Treasure, but just isn’t good enough and loses lasix.

    Perform—Connections supplemented him for $150G and he’s got some nice works for a formidable trainer. But while the late spurt in the Tesio was visually dazzling, it came during a final eighth that went in 13.3, his numbers are mediocre and he’s off the meds.

    Red Route One—Liked him in the Rebel, but he hasn’t progressed in the two races since. Pace doesn’t figure to be sizzling, and most likely scenario is Joel stays inside and gets horse running late to complete the super.

    Blazing Sevens—He’s picked up some checks in big races without being particularly impressive, and his only single-digit number came over a sloppy track amid a pace collapse. Think he’ll improve here for Chad, but not enough to get into the exacta.

    Mage—It seemed possible, before First Mission scratched, that he might hold at 8-5 or drift a shade higher. Now, it’s hard to see anything better than 4-5, and while he continues to impress, wouldn’t count on him pairing or exceeding the Derby number, regardless of Delgado’s good stats with quick turnarounds in cheaper races. Seems reasonable to expect a 2-point regression, and while that might be good enough to win, the price won’t be good enough to bet him on that assumption. Will look to beat him while reversing the exacta.

    National Treasure—Wouldn’t have thought six months ago that this would be Bullet Bob’s big horse for the Triple Crown races, but here we are and his line makes sense off the quarter-point new top six weeks ago, as Vito noted. As long as he breaks decently, Johnny should be able to control the pace, and while he’s had trouble passing horses, he may not have to here. Had expected the tactical advantage to knock his price down to 3-1 before the scratch; now will hope for 2-1 and $12 on the exacta. Not much to get excited about, but he’s the logical key.

    Good luck to all.
      

    Posted by cartouche   on May-19 12:35 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892153]   [IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
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  Pimlico 6th Race Friday Click here to view this message
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     Favorite looks tough with rail, number power, and a 57 percent trainer, but I'm taking a little shot here with the lightly raced 4, And Whistle (10-1), who gets a lot of weight from the field and who ran a slight new top in her third and last start despite stumbling out of gate and rushing up. Should be on the lead with the scratch of Hidewright Away. If she continues to improve off a bit of a line, she's in the mix, and I don't like the co-second favorite moving from the able hands of Ness or the third favorite, Italian Dressing. 
    Posted by rockamundo   on May-19 10:02 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

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  re;The Preakness Click here to view this message
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     Not a big field but I don't like the favorite at all.Mage figuring to be less than the 8/5 morning line has developed 6 points already and comes back in 2 weeks.I just can't see him going forward and at his price you can have him.First Mission the Cox horse has run 3 times   and has a nice forward moving line with decent timing and is a big use for me.The horse I like is National Treasure from the rail, trained by Bullet Bob who makes his first Triple Crown race  appearance in quite a while.Baffert has won this race 7 times and is tied with someone else so a win here puts him all alone.National Treasure comes in with 6 weeks rest and that 1/4 point move that betters last years top, a line I will always play.Listed at 4-1 (I thought he would be more) he looks the one.I am willing to bet the billionaire owners will all be back with Baffert  because they like to win .A  box with Baffert and Cox seems the way to go with National Treasure to  win.Good luck to all.
    Posted by vp612   on May-16 1:24 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892074]   [IP Addr= 162.158.63.59]
5Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Glacken
May-18
  re;DIODORO Click here to view this message
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     Diodoro given 15 days for elevated TCO2 in one of his horses(Paiulick Report) and he said''Im shocked ,shocked,to find out that gambling is going on in here"!
    Posted by vp612   on May-15 7:12 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892052]   [IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
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  re POSTS PREAKNESS Click here to view this message
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     POST POSITIONS

    1-NATIONAL TREASURE                   4-1
    2-CHASE THE CHAOS                        50-1
    3-MAGE                                                  8/5
    4-COFFEEWITHCHRIS                         20-1
    5-RED ROUTE ONE                              10-1
    6-PERFORM                                           15-1
    7-BLAZING SEVENS                             6-1
    8-FIRST MISSION                                  5/2 
     
    Good luck to all

    Posted by vp612   on May-15 7:04 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2892051]   [IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
3Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Glacken
May-16
  re;Baffert pimlico Click here to view this message
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     Baffert shipping 4 horses to PImlico,National Treasure will go in the preakness,Faiza unbeaten in 5 starts in the Black Eyed susan,Arabian lion will go in the Sir barton stakes and Havna meltdown will go in the Chick Lang stakes.
    Posted by vp612   on May-12 6:20 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891995]   [IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
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  San Luis Rey at Santa Anita (R9) Click here to view this message
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         Had expected to post one of the Belmont stakes, but my weakness for turf marathons where the favorites don’t seem better than a couple of longies carried the day.
         In reverse order:

    Midcourt—This once very-fast dirt horse not quite two years ago matched a top he’d run two years earlier, and has made just two starts since. Trying the turf for the first time at 8 amounts to: what have they got to lose?

    Opry—He’s stuck on a number this year that actually fits, but suspect he won’t make the lead from the outside and not sure he’ll improve at 7. Bad price at 4-1.

    Explain This Audit—He’s among the lightweights and has the rail, but even off a quarter-point turf top seems likely to regress on two-week turnaround.

    Offlee Naughty—His number winning last was nothing special, and spots weight and possibly ground loss while stretching out an extra quarter mile. At 8-5 will let him beat me.

    Rimprotector—He actually ran a quarter-point faster than the favorite in his last and is listed at 30-1. At those odds, certainly worth using in the lower half of the exotics.

    Dicey Mo Chara—He at least makes sense at 5-2, despite returning two weeks after a quarter-point turf top, and has Hernandez back aboard. But beyond the likelihood of a bounce while going an extra half-mile, he’s had trouble out of the gate in three of his last four starts, which is not a good sign. Will try to beat him despite his number power.

    Planetario—South American import has made just one start for Mandella, and that was 11 months ago in an optional claimer where he ran fifth. Yet serious trainer runs him back in a Grade 3 with lasix off, maybe because that number fits well here, maybe because he’s the only one in here with a win at the distance. Like the strong, long workout a week ago, and like the 6-1 morning line, and will be throwing some win money on him if the price holds.

    Agatino—Like Planetario, he’s losing J.J. in the saddle, and the replacement is less established than Berrios. But again, trainer intent comes into play: off a layoff, D’Amato brings him back with a move up in class that requires him to shed the meds.But the last number fits, he’s one of those getting weight, and he’s showed enough speed in his last two that he may wind up on the lead in this paceless race. At 12-1, has enough in his favor to make him the key.

    Good luck to all.
      

    Posted by cartouche   on May-12 1:05 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891979]   [IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
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  re;Saffie Click here to view this message
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     Saffie is suspended indefinitely at Churchill.H e does not have any horses entered in ny or GULF.Is  he suspended everywhere.?If they don't find anything illegal after they finish the tests can they still ban him?
    Posted by vp612   on May-12 8:42 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891969]   [IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
          1 re;Saffie Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Mr. Baffert has been able to ply his trade in Ca, AR,NJ without any problem. Navarro was welcomed with open arms in NJ. BBt ran 259 horses in 2022, while SJ2 started 823. Comes down to who fills the races, I would guess. Mark Shuman is still training after sawing a horses leg off after a race at GP. RD2 forced to do 10 years though as Len said. When does Linda Rice start that pesky 3 year suspension for peaking at the entries before the deadline. Does she still train for Barry Schwartz. HISA at its finest. 

      Posted by spencer thornton   on May-12 1:39 PM   

      [Message Id=2891982]   [IP Addr= 172.70.114.153]

          2 re;Saffie Click here to view reply in a separate window
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       Good question. If I Had to list 5, he’d be one. I looked at the question from Vito more as a cause and reaction. Plus it surround CDI’s signature race. I googled Cox and don’t see a lot of days and fines listed. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place, but I don’t know if he’s been caught a lot, or not high profile. I didn’t see any for Rob Atras either. 

      Posted by spencer thornton   on May-12 4:52 PM   

      [Message Id=2891989]   [IP Addr= 172.70.114.153]

          4 re;Saffie Click here to view reply in a separate window
       My question simply put is this.He is a user period.Two of his horses died in 2 days.They are running every test in the world.If they don't find anything wrong what is their intention?That is the question.

      Posted by vp612   on May-12 5:33 PM   

      [Message Id=2891994]   [IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]

          5 re;Saffie Click here to view reply in a separate window
       I have a question.

      Can anyone point me to a horse Saffie Joseph or Brad Cox has run in the last five years that exhibited strange (drug induced) behavior? I mean besides Knicks Go lol.

      I am in the minority in that I have accepted my inability to make the game pristine. I cannot change what happens so I play the game and try to be aware.

      When I see a runner like Jacobson's Stage Left (9th race Belmont Sat) I think "Now there is a cheater". When I see what Jamie Ness does I feel the same. 

      On the left coast I see horses move up for JWS. He will be in the HOF for sure. 

      Where is the evidence Brad is no good? I believe I read here D'Amato is no good. What is the end game? I will pull out my joke - What do we want? Shirreffs and Drysdale match races?


      Posted by Gary Mc   on May-12 7:59 PM   

      [Message Id=2892000]   [IP Addr= 162.158.74.158]

5Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Gary Mc
May-12
  re;Forte Dq Click here to view this message
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     Bloodhorse,  According to an attorney for TAP, Forte has been dq,d from the last years  Hopeful for illegal drug use.Tap will be suspended 10 days and fined $10,000.
    Posted by vp612   on May-11 3:20 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891957]   [IP Addr= 162.158.63.59]
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  re;Forte vets Click here to view this message
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     Saw an interview with Tap and Repole and basically they said different vets have different opinions.Repole said if the race was Tuesday he could run.Tap said he intends to breeze Forte Friday and if comes back good he is running.I think they better be careful what they do here because if something happens here with Forte it would be disastrous for them.
    Posted by vp612   on May-08 2:03 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

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14Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies cartouche
May-10
  Caveman Read Click here to view this message
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    Not the first time it’s happened to me or many of us. After all the pattern analysis, ground loss and of course the bounce. I showed a "civilian” friend  the sheets when they were walking on the track. I told him the lower the number the better. He rifled through the numbers, and he said I’m boxing 3,8,15, they’re the fastest. Told him Forte is scratched better yet he said and bet a $10 box 3-8. Easy game. For some. 
    Posted by spencer thornton   on May-08 1:40 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891836]   [IP Addr= 173.245.52.96]
          1 Caveman Read Click here to view reply in a separate window
      I had the same experience when I took my older brother to the races for the first time.  He cashed his first bet on the fastest horse in the race who figured to bounce and said this is sure an easy game (and it was in those good old days).  Several losing bets later (and a couple were pretty easy cashes) he was singing a somewhat different tune.  

      Mage at the odds was a very defensible play as any time you're getting 10-1 or better on a horse whose last number looks good in the race (and with Forte out that was certainly the case in here) and that top number is not extremely ugly there's likely to be some value and 15-1 was indeed very generous odds vs numbers.  The top of the second place finisher did look pretty ugly to me so the exacta was well beyond my reach for sure.

      Horses bouncing off tops is just a percentage issue--far more do than not and that was the case in this Derby as it is every year that I can remember.  That being said the Derby is often won by a horse off a top that we would have thought was more likely to bounce than not.  The trick, I think, is not to overanalyze trying to pick out which one(s) is going to be the fortunate one to pair up or go forward but rather to just go with the odds value which will probably hold up in the long run.

      I didn't play Mage to win which may have been a mistake on my part.  I was live with him and some other longshots in a horizontal wager where the previous winners were not much help with the value and all I could do was get back what I had lost in my Oaks-Derby DD play.  Sometimes just breaking even is a hard thing to do.




      Posted by Robespierre   on May-09 4:55 PM   

      [Message Id=2891877]   [IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]

          2 Caveman Read Click here to view reply in a separate window
      Sometimes they don't bounce! Mage caught a hot pace and Javier rode him with confidence! As always the Sheets are the best Tool to have a chance in witch I recall you years ago saying this is a very demanding, difficult game! On a side-note, you guys had the FLA Derby Spot on! Cheers from a user for 33 years now!

      Posted by apples23   on May-10 6:24 PM   

      [Message Id=2891922]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.169]

          3 Caveman Read Click here to view reply in a separate window
3Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies jakeh
May-10
  Equibase E-GPS chart Click here to view this message
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     Scored this link from them for the Derby...some of the data seems like garbage at 1st glance but I suspect the strides a horse takes during the run up is part of the reason for some "funny numbers" as an old Turkish math professor of mine used to call them...not surprisingly, Mage had the best stride rate and Angel had the best avg stride length...suspect there is some value in this stuff for evaluating maiden races, but I would have just settled for Trakus data, but that is no more...https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/gps/CD050623USA12.html
     
    Posted by Glacken   on May-08 12:02 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891832]   [IP Addr= 172.70.42.237]
2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Glacken
May-09
  Derby seminar last edit Click here to view this message
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    The last possibility gets in but King Russell is on the slow side with a difficult post plus being off a substantial new top.  A toss in what now may be the widest open Derby in many years.  With apologies to Cartouche, I can't see keying anyone at less that 10-1 odds.  No one has a particularly strong pattern, many are within 2-3 points of the top number going in and there is always the random Derby luck factor where trouble usually eliminates at least a few.
    Posted by Robespierre   on May-06 11:01 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891800]   [IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
          1 Derby seminar last edit Click here to view reply in a separate window
      Agreed, but for those reasons hard to find any key at all. Hard to play tris and supers without a key horse as it gets very expensive with so many horses.  Maybe just win and exacta bets in this Derby, though I'll probably take a flyer on some small tris.

      I'm hoping to be alive in the dirt pick 5 so I don't need to bet the longshots to win in the Derby.  I'm glad they added that bet, as the dirt races have been much easier to handicap than the turf races.  But I have to get by the 10th race for that to happen.  I have 3 in that race, and that's the one race I ended up cutting a couple of horses to shorten the price of the ticket.  


      Posted by Jason L.   on May-06 3:20 PM   

      [Message Id=2891805]   [IP Addr= 162.158.90.88]

1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Jason L.
May-06
  Forte Scratched (nm) Click here to view this message
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  The Kentucky Derby Click here to view this message
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         The scratch of Skinner, given his excellent pattern and juicy odds, was meaningful, but it at least brings some clarity to my selection in a race where a half-dozen horses could win without shocking.

         In reverse order:

    Jace's Road--Cox has three live horses in here, and then there's this one. The Allbaugh family being part-owners fuels the suspicion that he will be used to create a swift early pace for Angel of Empire to go rolling by late.

    King Russell--Comes off a jump-up and draws the worst in terms of ground loss.

    Raise Cain--Qualified for this because the final half-mile of the Gotham was run seven seconds slower than the first half.

    Sun Thunder--The good move in the Risen Star set him back.

    Disarm--Got into the field by running an extra race, and hard to see him improving off that jump-up.

    Two Phil's--It could be that the pair triggered the huge jump-up last out, but that was on poly. Just as importantly, it leaves him susceptible to a bounce even with six weeks off.

    Kingsbarns--The crawling pace he got away with in the Louisiana Derby is reflected in the pedestrian number. Won't have it so easy here, and is the weakest of the Pletchers.

    Cyclone Mischief--Jumped up in the Florida Derby, and drew poorly enough that even if he paired here, it wouldn't get him anything.

    Confidence Game--Comes in with a rare 10-week layoff off the Rebel pop, but still hasn't shown much over a fast track.

    Rocket Can--Looked promising earlier this year but hasn't improved, and if he went forward here it might be nullified by the outside draw.

    Derma Sotogake--Got loose in Meydan and was never challenged. Think the pace scenario will be tougher here, although it's possible he'll improve.

    Mandarin Hero--The other Japanese export worked out a nice inside trip in the Santa Anita Derby yet ran a better number than Practical Move, whose scratch is lamentable because of the money he'd have burned. Trip will be rougher from post 18, though he, too, could move forward.

    Reincarnate--He's the steam horse in the early Derby betting, going from 50-1 morning line to 15-1. Not that surprising, since while he's been a disappointment lately, his line isn't bad. The Bullet Bob-like four-furlong work suggests Johnny will be sending with enthusiasm early, but don't think he'll last.

    Hit Show--Could fall victim to the early push to get inside before the first turn, which is why he's slightly above his 30-1 morning line. Made a significant move forward in the Wood, and while he got a fairly good set-up, that may be why he couldn't quite get up late. May improve again, and offers value at the lower end of the exotics.

    Verifying--Has enough positional speed that Tyler from post 2 may send him to the lead to avoid the early traffic and perhaps try to wire them. He's also in off a good move and may not improve that much given my expectation that the pace will be solid, but another offering good odds to complete the tri or super.

    Tapit Trice--He's the best-drawn of the leading contenders, and the pair last time could be the prelude to a pop. Knack for early trouble is a concern, but is good enough to conceivably win this for Todd.

    Forte--A deserving favorite whose main edge in here is his consistent excellence while moving steadily forward. The Florida Derby win comes with a question mark, since Mage had a more difficult trip and it took a slow final eighth for this horse to get him late. Toss him at your own risk, even though Todd winning this would merely elevate his Derby win rate above 4 percent, but it's tempting to try to get him out of the exacta.

    Mage--That move on the far turn at Gulfstream brought to mind Monarchos, and he might not have been caught if it wasn't just his third start. Big issue is breaking cleanly, since he showed last time he can run big from off the pace, which gives him tractability. While Javy isn't as good as Saez at this point in their careers, he remains one of the top finishers in the game, and if there's going to be a real upset, he seems the logical horse at 20-1.

    Angel of Empire--While he's never taken a backward step, he had no place to go but up after his 3 slow races at 2. And a case could be made that with 8 points of development in his last two starts, he's gone as far as he can in the short term. But the stretch run he made in blowing open the Arkansas Derby--and doing it after a slow early pace--may mean he got good for Cox at just the right time and has the right rider to get that late burst from him again, favorable pace set-up or not. Down to 6-1 in the early betting, but think this may be where the Angel gets his wings, and he's the key.

    Good luck to all. 

    Posted by cartouche   on May-06 1:16 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891784]   [IP Addr= 173.245.52.98]
          1 The Kentucky Derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Hello C,

      Excellent rundown as usual.

      I caught the Derby Fever watching Bill Mott talk about Rocket Can. I have wavered some, but have decided to stick with him. It didn't take very long (1:49 2/5) for him to go from the chalk in a $1M race to an outsider today.

      You comment about not improving is accurate if you look only at his last. He went back a quarter point. My question regards the pace of that race. They went the first 4f in 47 1/5. The final five furlongs went in 1:02 3/5. That is a slow pace? I thought it was pretty hot, and enabled a second tier runner like King Russell to clunk up for second.

      Rocket got the second fastest # in the race, and was closer to the front than Angel. I was kinda hangin my hat that the pace worked against him. Am I wrong?

      Of course I am looking for the forward move that was expected last time to arrive today. The hood helped another runner with similar blood in the Oaks.

      Good Luck Today


      Posted by Gary Mc   on May-06 7:07 AM   

      [Message Id=2891787]   [IP Addr= 162.158.74.158]

          2 The Kentucky Derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
      Sometimes you feel like you're in a dark room and you can't find the light switch.  That was yesterday ,This is today .I intend to find it.Good luck to all on derby day.

      Posted by vp612   on May-06 7:50 AM   

      [Message Id=2891788]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]

          3 The Kentucky Derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
          4 The Kentucky Derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Hi Cart

      Thanks for posting your thoughtful analysis. Struggled betting too strongly against about 4-5 of these myself, but ended up on Verifying mainly because if his almost guaranteed ground saving trip. Kind of lame, i know, but this field has about seven who could run a 7–so something has to separate them. Good luck in your bets.





      Posted by ap_indy22   on May-06 8:50 AM   

      [Message Id=2891790]   [IP Addr= 172.70.42.245]

          5 The Kentucky Derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
       I disagree on Tapit Trice.  A pair up of tops by a young 3 year-old coming in with relatively short rest usually means a bounce, not a pop.  And as the probable favorite now, tempted to toss.  But will probably use a little in exotics. 

      Angel of Empire will also be a big underlay.  Jut made a 3.75 point move and also more likely to bounce than move forward.  Not that fast as a 2 year-old so has developed a lot at a short time.  Probably first or second choice.  I like him slightly better than Tapit Trice, but there are several at much better prices I think as much or better.

      With Forte and Skinner out, I think this is the most wide-open Derby I've ever seen.  And there are 3 or 4 longshots who have just as good of a chance as the favorites. The third choice will be Two Phil's and I think he has close to zero chance of running in the money.

      I'll mostly be playing Hit Show, Verifying, Mage, Rocket Can and Mandarin Hero.  If I had to pick a most probably winner, I 'd say Mage, but he could easily bounce.  I think Rocket Can is the most likely to move forward, but that could still be too slow, though that's less likely now with Forte and Skinner out.    


      Posted by Jason L.   on May-06 10:33 AM   

      [Message Id=2891799]   [IP Addr= 162.158.90.88]

5Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Jason L.
May-06
  Another Derby seminar update Click here to view this message
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    Scratches galore!

    I guess I'm left with Hit Show as the possible long shot key even with the dreaded one post draw (not so dreaded for me, though).

    Additional draw ins:

    Mandarin Hero-JP:  Good enough number power even from the outside to be borderline competitive and absolutely no pattern to read.  2yo Japanese races look to be pretty good and he's a use for me in the exotics.

    King Russell:  On the slow side and off a 3 1/2 point new top with no decent 2yo form.  A toss for me.

    Good luck to all.

    Posted by Robespierre   on May-05 11:19 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891775]   [IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies --
  Skinner scratched (nm) Click here to view this message
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  re;maybe this time Click here to view this message
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     Look we all know who the offenders are, and SAFFIE  is on that list.They have something that can't be detected and horses run with it and it masks the pain and then you get this.Churchill is the top dog that can start to do something about these guys.This is the greatest race there is and they don't want bad press by PETA and whoever else.Maybe they will take some money from the purses (every track ,every purse) and go after these guys.It's a money thing and there is plenty of it to spend.What you need is the will.
    Posted by vp612   on May-05 8:21 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891767]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
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     CM draws in but from the 20 post he is another toss for me.  Four point new top in last with relatively weak 2yo form leads me to expect a bounce which with the post draw leaves him with a seemingly impossible task.
    Posted by Robespierre   on May-04 3:08 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891750]   [IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
6Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Robespierre
May-05
  Practical Move Out Click here to view this message
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     A distance turf  stake that I think has a live long shot.Talk of the nation's last race was  very good ,with a good number and has to be used.Carl Spackler a CCB horse has run twice  and his line is very nice another I will use.The horse I like is JOHANNES listed at 15-1 ,comes in with a condition line that I will always play, nice timing ,good post and the trainer Yakteen is doing ok .Good luck to all.
    Posted by vp612   on May-04 1:23 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891745]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies gbubrick
May-05
  re; church Friday 5th Click here to view this message
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     An interesting race with a value play in it I hope.Art collector ,sort  of went off the rails and Mott gave him some time off ,brought him back and he ran 2 good races.The problem for me is he didn't get back to his top , in those races and it is my belief he goes back a little here, listed at 5/2, I will use.West will Power ,Cox 2-1 just ran a 4 point new top ,will take money but is another that I think reacts, also a use.The horse I like is Milliken 10-1 with a forward moving line(one point) that I think does go forward, and at the price is my pick.They sprinted him a while, but then stretched him out, and he has really responded.
    Posted by vp612   on May-04 8:32 AM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891733]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies rockamundo
May-04
  CD May 5 race 8 - Beat the favorite Click here to view this message
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    #1 horse Bay Storm is one of only two horses in this $300k race who looks likely to run a single digit number. She is accomplished at leaving the gate alertly from the rail and staying on. 6-1 ML odds.
     
    The other contender likely to run a sole digit, #11 horse Caravel is the 4-5 ML favorite, She will likely be hard used from the gate to gain, at best, the 3 path.
     
     
     
     

    Posted by chausseswa   on May-03 11:38 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891729]   [IP Addr= 172.69.33.238]
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  re;the derby Click here to view this message
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     The derby has not been very kind to me .I do much better at other tracks and other Churchill races  on derby day.The reason ,bad posts, bad analysis.So here goes.The horse I like is Skinner his 3 race pattern this year to me  is a siren song along with 20-1.PRACTICAL MOVE  has a line I like and is 12-1 so I will use him.Skinner just confuses me as to the 2 year old line is just so bad that I just can't understand that part of it.Hit show from the rail  at a big price is a use.Forte as I have said has very good numbers but the 3-1  just forces me to save with him and nothing more.I already like other races on the card  so I will try and keep my play reasonable, plus there are always other tracks.It;s a great race but a difficult one at least for me.Good luck to all.
    Posted by vp612   on May-03 10:37 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891727]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
          1 re;the derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
      Agreed Skinner is the best bet in this race, but last year's numbers are concerning.  I would normally never bet a horse in the Derby who went backward like that first time going long.  But you have to think something was wrong with the horse in that race. At 20-1 ML with this year's numbers, he's hard to pass up, but I can't say that I'm really confident he runs what he should based on the pattern.

      Forte is going to be tough to beat.  Has a faster number than Skinner this year and was much faster last year.  And having run a good number in May of last year and having run 7 good races, he's further along in his development than the competition.   Even assuming he loses ground, he's still by far the most likely horse to finish in the money.  And I don't see that he's any more likely to lose ground than Skinner.

      Practical Move could pop a new top and should save ground.  But he'll be overbet for the number power given the SA Derby win.  

      Tapit Trice is a solid horse, but I can't really use at the price except when spreading.

      Have to throw in Mage given his last number, breeding and price.  But he's far more likely to bounce than to pair that number.  

      I don't really like anyone else very much.  



      Posted by Jason L.   on May-03 11:20 PM   

      [Message Id=2891728]   [IP Addr= 162.158.90.88]

          2 re;the derby Click here to view reply in a separate window
       I don't have a problem with his 2 YO season.  1st race, not a sprinter, 6f way too short, but did make up 5 lengths in the stretch.  2nd race, still too short, for a maiden he didn't do bad for trying a G1, finishing 3rd behind a runaway winner. 3rd race, another G1 and not ready.  Based on the layoff of a month before going back in training and not racing again until 4 months later, I agree something went wrong with him.  Then he comes back in February a new horse getting numbers that put him with the faster horses in this race.  Today Welsch raved about him watching him gallop.  With every hour closer to the Derby, I'm liking him more & more.        

      Posted by kingsland   on May-04 5:13 PM   

      [Message Id=2891759]   [IP Addr= 162.158.158.41]

2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies kingsland
May-04
  Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view this message
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    Coin flip on rain, but the key stands regardless; due to board post length constraints, i left out all the tosses. Good luck to all!

     

    Uses underneath

     

    #1 Hit Show—pegged him for an 8, but may get pinballed against the rail

     

    #5 Tapit Trice—can see trip 8s, but may lose some major ground on turn two

     

    #8 Mage—ran a big new top last out and looks to be figuring it all out at the right time

     

    #10 Practical Move—fast 2yo top, but looks stuck on 9 and may lose ground; may run a new top and suck up for 3rd

     

    #14 Angel of Empire—the 8 looks decent but may be wide; BHC factor is his saving grace

     

    Strong uses

     

    #9 Skinner—pattern looks set for a new top; worried about ground on both turns; 20-1 is juicy

     

    #15 Forte—beautiful sheet, but the post will leave him wide; might run a 5 and lose

     

    #17 Derma Sotogake—drawn wide, but there is a chance he is on the lead 2w2w next to my key horse, and a 7 is plausible

     

    Key

     

    #2 Verifying—gifted rider; fast at 2yo on a sloppy track and just ran another top last out. Should be on or near the lead and saving ground on both turns; penciled in a 7 on his line, even though an 8 may do; needs a good start or bust, but 15-1 is fair.

           
    Posted by ap_indy22   on May-03 5:15 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891715]   [IP Addr= 172.69.58.41]
          1 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
      Thanks for the rundown AP. What I want to know is the strong affection for the Japanese runners. Is this the result of their recent domination in important international events?

      I want to point out something along the lines of "The horse is already out of the barn".

      We only have two numbers. A 5 1/2 point move. Now we get 10-1? For this goofy acting colt by a sprinter who could only just beat another colt by another sprinter.

      A handicapper I respect also is thinking of keying Derma Shave. I did not want to press him on it. Instead I will press you lol. I'm all ears.


      Posted by Gary Mc   on May-03 7:31 PM   

      [Message Id=2891720]   [IP Addr= 162.158.74.158]

          2 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       I too am high on Verifying and I have said this to everybody I talked to so far....IF we get the wire to wire trip we crave, Hit Show MAY get a dream trip behind him...I am not a Hit Show fan in a vacuum...watched every bit of video CD produced and that horse is built like a sprinter in every way but we have seen some very good pocket trips in the Derby (Casse's horse would have run 1-2 in the Derby had Max Security run a straight path...if you key the 2, conditional probabilities are such you need to have a 2-1 & 2-abc-1 to go for some big balloons...


      Posted by Glacken   on May-03 7:54 PM   

      [Message Id=2891722]   [IP Addr= 172.70.42.237]

          3 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Gary: this year looks like a question of pace and who sets it. Derma most certainly has early foot and has to be sent hard, as does Verifying. Don’t see many other "speed” horses aside from Kingsbarns, who is slow.

      The conspiracy theorist in me thinks Jose Ortiz will send hard to mush up the pace for his brother on the big TAP horse. The realist in me thinks Verifying and Derma are sitting on another forward move and will save ground relative to the others with nice lines and slightly better numbers. Pretty generic/fundamental approach, but an 8 on either sheet with minimal ground loss and no traffic trouble may be good enough in this mediocre field.

      Posted by ap_indy22   on May-03 9:26 PM   

      [Message Id=2891724]   [IP Addr= 172.71.222.53]

          4 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Glack: yeah, bet structuring will be key. 2w1,5,8-10,14,15,17wALL is probably how i will structure the tri wheel, with a few exacta boxes as savers. Not yet sure how i will structure the late P5, but i really like WIM’s in R13. Good luck in your bets.

      Posted by ap_indy22   on May-03 9:37 PM   

      [Message Id=2891725]   [IP Addr= 172.71.222.53]

          5 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Wow - thanks for your thoughtful reply - I was just about to retire (so to speak).

      1) I get in trouble when I try to visualize pace. These days I try to stick to sheet #'s.

      2) I read there is common ownership with Angel and Jace. The latter may be the rabbit for the benefit of the former. This is just a rumor.

      3) Verifying (15-1) has been hinting at big things since they paid $3/4M for him without delivering much. I am thinking of tossing him. I might be dead wrong.

      4) How do you play a colt who moves 5 1/2 points to go forward? At what price?

      5) Minimal ground loss and no traffic trouble? I want to borrow your crystal ball.

      Please do not take my comments as harsh. I am voicing real questions.


      Posted by Gary Mc   on May-03 9:50 PM   

      [Message Id=2891726]   [IP Addr= 162.158.74.158]

          6 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
      Heard Veriifying dumped his rider on his gallop this AM...no details yet...bit late in the week to do a mile and a half


      Posted by Glacken   on May-04 10:30 AM   

      [Message Id=2891736]   [IP Addr= 172.70.42.237]

          7 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Seems like it was early in Verifying's gallop (right after he initially broke perhaps) AND he did not do a lap before being caught...doubt rider got back on ...will wait to see if he gallops tomorrow...I am still in his camp if he hits the track tomorrow


      Posted by Glacken   on May-04 11:08 AM   

      [Message Id=2891738]   [IP Addr= 172.70.42.237]

          8 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Gary: thanks for the response, and i never take things personally/harshly when it comes to handicapping. The only things i don't take well are mis-timed rides and move-up trainers..

      To your points:

      Derma has a good amount of foundation at 2yo, and those tracks in Japan are slow with very little run-up and even less pace. 

      The Saudi number a few months back is a toss for me. That track is weird, and far less favorable to true dirt horses. Lot of turfers have luck running on their main track, and many good dirt horses spin their wheels. Many have penalized Derma's UAE Derby due to a ground saving trip, but it was his first time running on the lead. He aired under a hand ride while taking some pace pressure for the first time from a quality horse, which isn't easy to do.

      As to your point on traffic and ground loss, i think those factors are elevated to the max in the Derby. Anywhere from 2-5 points of ground loss are not unexpected. This year it might come into play more so than recent runnings due to the fact that only one horse has a 6 on his sheet, but figures to lose 2-3 points on the turns and is going to be 3-1. He could run a 4-5 and lose, just like that BBt horse Game Winner a few years back.

      A 1w1w 8 on the front end wins this, and the only one i am willing to bet make that happen is #2 at 15-1. If Verifying swapped posts with Forte, i would probably key Skinner. It's that kind of year.


      Posted by ap_indy22   on May-04 11:26 AM   

      [Message Id=2891741]   [IP Addr= 172.69.58.41]

          9 Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts Click here to view reply in a separate window
       Hi AP (again)

      Re Derma - I understand your point about his 2yo racing giving him a foundation, but without knowing what kind of numbers he ran it makes it tough to say if his fast race was out of line or just right. All we have is the prior number and while I have no reason to doubt your justification, I rely on the numbers as written. So I will go with what I see.

      Re Forte - I can only laugh when things such as paths and chaos are talked about. Of course there will be some who are unlucky. There is really no way to quantify this except to rely on the jockey's skill, and even then there are no guarantees. While Forte has been closing (see his FL Derby) it should be noted THAT is where he SHOULD have been by the fractions. Irad played it perfect. I watched his BC Juv victory where they went 22 and change. Forte was never far back, Irad had him in the pocket. Another good ride. The horse seems adaptable.

      Re Who do I like? - Rocket Can. He will get a Great Trip lol!!!


      Posted by Gary Mc   on May-04 12:06 PM   

      [Message Id=2891742]   [IP Addr= 162.158.74.158]

9Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Gary Mc
May-04
  RE;SAFFIE Click here to view this message
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     THOROUGHBRED news reporting 2 Saffie horses have died  one during a race and one after being vanned off at Churchill.Saffie is considering scratching Lord Miles and 6 others until necropsy reports come back.Hmm.
    Posted by vp612   on May-03 4:39 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891712]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies Gary Mc
May-03
  re;Dutrow Click here to view this message
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  New Tops Prior to Derby Click here to view this message
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    It's hard to recall a Derby with this many horses coming in off tops. I count 15 who are off tops, large or small, and of the remaining 5 horses, 3 have paired tops in their last race. One of the other 2 is off a tiny 1/2 point move backward. I suppose it's an effect of the point system but it is very striking this year.  
    Posted by rockamundo   on May-03 1:32 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891703]   [IP Addr= 172.70.130.36]
3Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies rockamundo
May-03
  re;Forte Click here to view this message
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     TAP seems to think post 15 isn't so bad, but  I do.Yes horses have won from 15 to 20,it does happen.As far as his sheet line, nothing wrong with it.The odds 3-1 and post 15, plenty wrong in my book.Things have to go very well for horses out there, and as of yet I am offering no opinion ,but Forte is not one I like.
    Posted by vp612   on May-02 5:56 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891681]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
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  re;Post positions derby Click here to view this message
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     1-   HIT SHOW.      30-1                                  11-DISARM.                 30-1
     2-VERIFYING.       15-1                                  12- JACES RD.            15-1
     3-TWO  PHILS.      12-1                                   13 SUN THUNDER.   30-1
     4- CONF.GAME.    20-1                                   14- ANGEL OF EMP.  8-1
     5-TAPIT TRICE.     5-1                                     15-FORTE                    3-1* Favorite
     6-KINGSBARNS.   12-1                                   16-RAISE CAIN          15-1
     7-REINCARNATE. 50-1                                   17-DERMA. SOTO.     10-1
     8-MAGE                  15-1                                   18- ROCKET CAN.      15-1
     9-SKINNER             20-1                                   19- LORD MILES.       30-1
    10-PRACT.MOVE.   10-1                                   20- CONTINUAR.       50-1
     

    Posted by vp612   on May-01 4:25 PM       Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message   

    [Message Id=2891643]   [IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
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