DateFilter set to show messages created in last 4 weeks
Start a
new Topic
Click Here to Start a new Topic
|
Handicapping
 Top
(99 Msgs in forum)
LastPost: May-30 8:47 AM
|
|
Replies | Last Reply |
re;BBT RECORD
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
The Hollywood Gold Cup at SA R.8
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
It's not often that you're given a good opportunity to beat not one
but two short-priced Baffert horses, so it's worth making the most of it,
even when the state of the Bulletin Board makes this feel a bit like a
message in a bottle.
In reverse
order:
Yes This Time--Glatt is a smart
horseman, and he's no doubt aware that this horse's only dirt race was a
stinker for Stidham. What he's doing here, I don't know.
Kiss Today Goodbye--Something went wrong with this horse 17
months ago, and sending him farther than he's ever gone doesn't figure to
fix it, even off a decent last race.
Piroli--Big jump-up two back, and a sizable bounce despite nearly two
months to replenish followed. Running back 16 days later doesn't figure to
produce much of a recovery.
Defunded--The
4-5 favorite figures to be loose on the lead, and maybe Hernandez can back
things down enough to prevent a late stagger of the sort that got him
narrowly beaten in two previous tries at this route, one of them in this
race last year. Besides that, he's off a quarter-point top last time, and
every single-digit number he's run has been followed by a reaction, even
when he had nearly two months off last fall. At the odds, will toss him
from the exacta.
Country Grammer--He's
run three excellent races in the Middle East the last two years, so the
clunker in his bid for a repeat in the Dubai World Cup was either a bad
reaction to the 2-point new top in the Saudi Cup or a sign that at 6 the
big number has triggered a long-term decline. Recent works for Bullet Bob
suggest he's ready to roll, and he won this race two years ago, but if he
can't do better than his usual good American number, think he's vulnerable
at 8-5 and probably lower. Will try to beat him but reverse the
exacta.
Senor Buscador--Horse who had
some physical issues early in his career came back strong last year off the
lengthy layoff, with two one-turn numbers minus lasix that would make him
very tough here if he can go this far. He's been on the meds for both
starts this year, including last out when he got squeezed early at Oaklawn,
but breeding suggests he can stretch and he gets a significant rider switch
to Senor Saez. Think Luis will have him closer early this time and could
produce a new top. At 5-1, the price is right, and he's the key.
Good luck to all.
Posted by cartouche
on May-28 7:18 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892343]
[IP Addr= 173.245.52.98]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
Is this on?
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
The Soaring Softly at Belmont R.7
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Lean pickings for a Saturday, but a curious morning line offers the
possibility of getting value going against the favorite, if the bettors
cooperate.
In reverse order:
Quarrel—Won
her only turf start but number wasn’t much, and Ribaudo not much off
layoffs.
Senior Prank—The longer of Chad’s pair had a
so-so turf debut behind today’s favorite. Expect improvement, but not
enough.
Love Appeals—She’s that favorite, but the new
top last time came on lasix, and her only race without it was mediocre.
Even getting Joel, at 6-5 will toss her.
Queen
Picasso—The longer of Clement’s duo is royally bred, and while she’s also
off the meds has yet to indicate she’s not the same without them. At 5-1,
may get into the exacta.
American Apple—She’s both the
most-experienced and most-accomplished filly here, so have to figure she’s
4-1 because of the low-profile trainer. Because between the big-balloons
win in the Matron last fall and a sweet pattern since, if anyone deserves
to be a short-priced favorite, she’s the one. Even a small improvement
would make her very tough here, and if the odds gap widens between her and
my top pick, she’s a defensible key.
Lady Beth—Shares
the fastest number with American Apple, although in her case it came on
lasix and over the poly when her turf race was rained off. Has been away
for nearly four months, but this is Chad we’re talking about, and she also
has good breeding, the rail and Prat in her favor. Would be surprised if
7-2 holds, but at 5-2 still would like her chances enough to key her.
Good luck to all.
Posted by cartouche
on May-26 2:42 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892310]
[IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
The Preakness at Pimlico
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
The scratch of First Mission obviously takes a lot of the value out of
the race, since he was one of the three likeliest winners but had taken the
worst of the post-position draw, just as surely as National Treasure got
the best of it.
In reverse order:
Chase the
Chaos—Not sure what he’s doing in here, aside from qualifying for the race
based on a win over poly. At least Two Phil’s had dirt numbers that weren’t
awful going into the Derby.
Coffeewithchris—He’s the
one remaining horse with enough early speed to press National Treasure, but
just isn’t good enough and loses lasix.
Perform—Connections supplemented him for $150G and he’s got some nice works
for a formidable trainer. But while the late spurt in the Tesio was
visually dazzling, it came during a final eighth that went in 13.3, his
numbers are mediocre and he’s off the meds.
Red Route
One—Liked him in the Rebel, but he hasn’t progressed in the two races
since. Pace doesn’t figure to be sizzling, and most likely scenario is Joel
stays inside and gets horse running late to complete the super.
Blazing Sevens—He’s picked up some checks in big races
without being particularly impressive, and his only single-digit number
came over a sloppy track amid a pace collapse. Think he’ll improve here for
Chad, but not enough to get into the exacta.
Mage—It
seemed possible, before First Mission scratched, that he might hold at 8-5
or drift a shade higher. Now, it’s hard to see anything better than 4-5,
and while he continues to impress, wouldn’t count on him pairing or
exceeding the Derby number, regardless of Delgado’s good stats with quick
turnarounds in cheaper races. Seems reasonable to expect a 2-point
regression, and while that might be good enough to win, the price won’t be
good enough to bet him on that assumption. Will look to beat him while
reversing the exacta.
National Treasure—Wouldn’t have
thought six months ago that this would be Bullet Bob’s big horse for the
Triple Crown races, but here we are and his line makes sense off the
quarter-point new top six weeks ago, as Vito noted. As long as he breaks
decently, Johnny should be able to control the pace, and while he’s had
trouble passing horses, he may not have to here. Had expected the tactical
advantage to knock his price down to 3-1 before the scratch; now will hope
for 2-1 and $12 on the exacta. Not much to get excited about, but he’s the
logical key.
Good luck to all.
Posted by cartouche
on May-19 12:35 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892153]
[IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
Pimlico 6th Race Friday
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Favorite looks tough with rail, number power, and a 57 percent trainer, but I'm taking a little shot here with the lightly raced 4, And Whistle (10-1), who gets a lot of weight from the field and who ran a slight new top in her third and last start despite stumbling out of gate and rushing up. Should be on the lead with the scratch of Hidewright Away. If she continues to improve off a bit of a line, she's in the mix, and I don't like the co-second favorite moving from the able hands of Ness or the third favorite, Italian Dressing.
Posted by rockamundo
on May-19 10:02 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892144]
[IP Addr= 172.70.130.36]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;The Preakness
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Not a big field but I don't like the favorite at all.Mage figuring to be less than the 8/5 morning line has developed 6 points already and comes back in 2 weeks.I just can't see him going forward and at his price you can have him.First Mission the Cox horse has run 3 times and has a nice forward moving line with decent timing and is a big use for me.The horse I like is National Treasure from the rail, trained by Bullet Bob who makes his first Triple Crown race appearance in quite a while.Baffert has won this race 7 times and is tied with someone else so a win here puts him all alone.National Treasure comes in with 6 weeks rest and that 1/4 point move that betters last years top, a line I will always play.Listed at 4-1 (I thought he would be more) he looks the one.I am willing to bet the billionaire owners will all be back with Baffert because they like to win .A box with Baffert and Cox seems the way to go with National Treasure to win.Good luck to all.
Posted by vp612
on May-16 1:24 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892074]
[IP Addr= 162.158.63.59]
|
5Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Glacken
May-18
|
re;DIODORO
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Diodoro given 15 days for elevated TCO2 in one of his horses(Paiulick Report) and he said''Im shocked ,shocked,to find out that gambling is going on in here"!
Posted by vp612
on May-15 7:12 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892052]
[IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re POSTS PREAKNESS
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
POST POSITIONS
1-NATIONAL TREASURE 4-1
2-CHASE THE CHAOS 50-1
3-MAGE 8/5
4-COFFEEWITHCHRIS 20-1
5-RED ROUTE ONE 10-1
6-PERFORM 15-1
7-BLAZING SEVENS 6-1
8-FIRST MISSION 5/2
Good luck to all
Posted by vp612
on May-15 7:04 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2892051]
[IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
|
3Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Glacken
May-16
|
re;Baffert pimlico
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Baffert shipping 4 horses to PImlico,National Treasure will go in the preakness,Faiza unbeaten in 5 starts in the Black Eyed susan,Arabian lion will go in the Sir barton stakes and Havna meltdown will go in the Chick Lang stakes.
Posted by vp612
on May-12 6:20 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891995]
[IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
San Luis Rey at Santa Anita (R9)
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Had expected to post one of the Belmont stakes, but my weakness for turf marathons where the favorites don’t seem better than a couple of longies carried the day.
In reverse order:
Midcourt—This once very-fast dirt horse not quite two years ago matched a top he’d run two years earlier, and has made just two starts since. Trying the turf for the first time at 8 amounts to: what have they got to lose?
Opry—He’s stuck on a number this year that actually fits, but suspect he won’t make the lead from the outside and not sure he’ll improve at 7. Bad price at 4-1.
Explain This Audit—He’s among the lightweights and has the rail, but even off a quarter-point turf top seems likely to regress on two-week turnaround.
Offlee Naughty—His number winning last was nothing special, and spots weight and possibly ground loss while stretching out an extra quarter mile. At 8-5 will let him beat me.
Rimprotector—He actually ran a quarter-point faster than the favorite in his last and is listed at 30-1. At those odds, certainly worth using in the lower half of the exotics.
Dicey Mo Chara—He at least makes sense at 5-2, despite returning two weeks after a quarter-point turf top, and has Hernandez back aboard. But beyond the likelihood of a bounce while going an extra half-mile, he’s had trouble out of the gate in three of his last four starts, which is not a good sign. Will try to beat him despite his number power.
Planetario—South American import has made just one start for Mandella, and that was 11 months ago in an optional claimer where he ran fifth. Yet serious trainer runs him back in a Grade 3 with lasix off, maybe because that number fits well here, maybe because he’s the only one in here with a win at the distance. Like the strong, long workout a week ago, and like the 6-1 morning line, and will be throwing some win money on him if the price holds.
Agatino—Like Planetario, he’s losing J.J. in the saddle, and the replacement is less established than Berrios. But again, trainer intent comes into play: off a layoff, D’Amato brings him back with a move up in class that requires him to shed the meds.But the last number fits, he’s one of those getting weight, and he’s showed enough speed in his last two that he may wind up on the lead in this paceless race. At 12-1, has enough in his favor to make him the key.
Good luck to all.
Posted by cartouche
on May-12 1:05 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891979]
[IP Addr= 108.162.219.225]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;Saffie
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Saffie is suspended indefinitely at Churchill.H e does not have any horses entered in ny or GULF.Is he suspended everywhere.?If they don't find anything illegal after they finish the tests can they still ban him?
Posted by vp612
on May-12 8:42 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891969]
[IP Addr= 172.70.111.41]
|
5Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Gary Mc
May-12
|
re;Forte Dq
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Bloodhorse, According to an attorney for TAP, Forte has been dq,d from the last years Hopeful for illegal drug use.Tap will be suspended 10 days and fined $10,000.
Posted by vp612
on May-11 3:20 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891957]
[IP Addr= 162.158.63.59]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;Forte vets
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Saw an interview with Tap and Repole and basically they said different vets have different opinions.Repole said if the race was Tuesday he could run.Tap said he intends to breeze Forte Friday and if comes back good he is running.I think they better be careful what they do here because if something happens here with Forte it would be disastrous for them.
Posted by vp612
on May-08 2:03 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891838]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
14Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
cartouche
May-10
|
Caveman Read
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Not the first time it’s happened to me or many of us. After all the pattern analysis, ground loss and of course the bounce. I showed a "civilian” friend the sheets when they were walking on the track. I told him the lower the number the better. He rifled through the numbers, and he said I’m boxing 3,8,15, they’re the fastest. Told him Forte is scratched better yet he said and bet a $10 box 3-8. Easy game. For some.
Posted by spencer thornton
on May-08 1:40 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891836]
[IP Addr= 173.245.52.96]
|
3Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
jakeh
May-10
|
Equibase E-GPS chart
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Scored this link from them for the Derby...some of the data seems like garbage at 1st glance but I suspect the strides a horse takes during the run up is part of the reason for some "funny numbers" as an old Turkish math professor of mine used to call them...not surprisingly, Mage had the best stride rate and Angel had the best avg stride length...suspect there is some value in this stuff for evaluating maiden races, but I would have just settled for Trakus data, but that is no more...https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/gps/CD050623USA12.html
Posted by Glacken
on May-08 12:02 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891832]
[IP Addr= 172.70.42.237]
|
2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Glacken
May-09
|
Derby seminar last edit
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
The last possibility gets in but King Russell is on the slow side with a difficult post plus being off a substantial new top. A toss in what now may be the widest open Derby in many years. With apologies to Cartouche, I can't see keying anyone at less that 10-1 odds. No one has a particularly strong pattern, many are within 2-3 points of the top number going in and there is always the random Derby luck factor where trouble usually eliminates at least a few.
Posted by Robespierre
on May-06 11:01 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891800]
[IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
|
1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Jason L.
May-06
|
Forte Scratched (nm)
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
The Kentucky Derby
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
The scratch of Skinner, given his excellent pattern and juicy odds, was meaningful, but it at least brings some clarity to my selection in a race where a half-dozen horses could win without shocking.
In reverse order:
Jace's Road--Cox has three live horses in here, and then there's this one. The Allbaugh family being part-owners fuels the suspicion that he will be used to create a swift early pace for Angel of Empire to go rolling by late.
King Russell--Comes off a jump-up and draws the worst in terms of ground loss.
Raise Cain--Qualified for this because the final half-mile of the Gotham was run seven seconds slower than the first half.
Sun Thunder--The good move in the Risen Star set him back.
Disarm--Got into the field by running an extra race, and hard to see him improving off that jump-up.
Two Phil's--It could be that the pair triggered the huge jump-up last out, but that was on poly. Just as importantly, it leaves him susceptible to a bounce even with six weeks off.
Kingsbarns--The crawling pace he got away with in the Louisiana Derby is reflected in the pedestrian number. Won't have it so easy here, and is the weakest of the Pletchers.
Cyclone Mischief--Jumped up in the Florida Derby, and drew poorly enough that even if he paired here, it wouldn't get him anything.
Confidence Game--Comes in with a rare 10-week layoff off the Rebel pop, but still hasn't shown much over a fast track.
Rocket Can--Looked promising earlier this year but hasn't improved, and if he went forward here it might be nullified by the outside draw.
Derma Sotogake--Got loose in Meydan and was never challenged. Think the pace scenario will be tougher here, although it's possible he'll improve.
Mandarin Hero--The other Japanese export worked out a nice inside trip in the Santa Anita Derby yet ran a better number than Practical Move, whose scratch is lamentable because of the money he'd have burned. Trip will be rougher from post 18, though he, too, could move forward.
Reincarnate--He's the steam horse in the early Derby betting, going from 50-1 morning line to 15-1. Not that surprising, since while he's been a disappointment lately, his line isn't bad. The Bullet Bob-like four-furlong work suggests Johnny will be sending with enthusiasm early, but don't think he'll last.
Hit Show--Could fall victim to the early push to get inside before the first turn, which is why he's slightly above his 30-1 morning line. Made a significant move forward in the Wood, and while he got a fairly good set-up, that may be why he couldn't quite get up late. May improve again, and offers value at the lower end of the exotics.
Verifying--Has enough positional speed that Tyler from post 2 may send him to the lead to avoid the early traffic and perhaps try to wire them. He's also in off a good move and may not improve that much given my expectation that the pace will be solid, but another offering good odds to complete the tri or super.
Tapit Trice--He's the best-drawn of the leading contenders, and the pair last time could be the prelude to a pop. Knack for early trouble is a concern, but is good enough to conceivably win this for Todd.
Forte--A deserving favorite whose main edge in here is his consistent excellence while moving steadily forward. The Florida Derby win comes with a question mark, since Mage had a more difficult trip and it took a slow final eighth for this horse to get him late. Toss him at your own risk, even though Todd winning this would merely elevate his Derby win rate above 4 percent, but it's tempting to try to get him out of the exacta.
Mage--That move on the far turn at Gulfstream brought to mind Monarchos, and he might not have been caught if it wasn't just his third start. Big issue is breaking cleanly, since he showed last time he can run big from off the pace, which gives him tractability. While Javy isn't as good as Saez at this point in their careers, he remains one of the top finishers in the game, and if there's going to be a real upset, he seems the logical horse at 20-1.
Angel of Empire--While he's never taken a backward step, he had no place to go but up after his 3 slow races at 2. And a case could be made that with 8 points of development in his last two starts, he's gone as far as he can in the short term. But the stretch run he made in blowing open the Arkansas Derby--and doing it after a slow early pace--may mean he got good for Cox at just the right time and has the right rider to get that late burst from him again, favorable pace set-up or not. Down to 6-1 in the early betting, but think this may be where the Angel gets his wings, and he's the key.
Good luck to all.
Posted by cartouche
on May-06 1:16 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891784]
[IP Addr= 173.245.52.98]
|
5Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Jason L.
May-06
|
Another Derby seminar update
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Scratches galore!
I guess I'm left with Hit Show as the possible long shot key even with the dreaded one post draw (not so dreaded for me, though).
Additional draw ins:
Mandarin Hero-JP: Good enough number power even from the outside to be borderline competitive and absolutely no pattern to read. 2yo Japanese races look to be pretty good and he's a use for me in the exotics.
King Russell: On the slow side and off a 3 1/2 point new top with no decent 2yo form. A toss for me.
Good luck to all.
Posted by Robespierre
on May-05 11:19 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891775]
[IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
Skinner scratched (nm)
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;maybe this time
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Look we all know who the offenders are, and SAFFIE is on that list.They have something that can't be detected and horses run with it and it masks the pain and then you get this.Churchill is the top dog that can start to do something about these guys.This is the greatest race there is and they don't want bad press by PETA and whoever else.Maybe they will take some money from the purses (every track ,every purse) and go after these guys.It's a money thing and there is plenty of it to spend.What you need is the will.
Posted by vp612
on May-05 8:21 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891767]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
Scratch Saffie
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
Cyclone Mischief
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
CM draws in but from the 20 post he is another toss for me. Four point new top in last with relatively weak 2yo form leads me to expect a bounce which with the post draw leaves him with a seemingly impossible task.
Posted by Robespierre
on May-04 3:08 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891750]
[IP Addr= 162.158.126.33]
|
6Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Robespierre
May-05
|
Practical Move Out
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;sat church race 9
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
A distance turf stake that I think has a live long shot.Talk of the nation's last race was very good ,with a good number and has to be used.Carl Spackler a CCB horse has run twice and his line is very nice another I will use.The horse I like is JOHANNES listed at 15-1 ,comes in with a condition line that I will always play, nice timing ,good post and the trainer Yakteen is doing ok .Good luck to all.
Posted by vp612
on May-04 1:23 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891745]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
gbubrick
May-05
|
re; church Friday 5th
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
An interesting race with a value play in it I hope.Art collector ,sort of went off the rails and Mott gave him some time off ,brought him back and he ran 2 good races.The problem for me is he didn't get back to his top , in those races and it is my belief he goes back a little here, listed at 5/2, I will use.West will Power ,Cox 2-1 just ran a 4 point new top ,will take money but is another that I think reacts, also a use.The horse I like is Milliken 10-1 with a forward moving line(one point) that I think does go forward, and at the price is my pick.They sprinted him a while, but then stretched him out, and he has really responded.
Posted by vp612
on May-04 8:32 AM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891733]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
1Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
rockamundo
May-04
|
CD May 5 race 8 - Beat the favorite
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
#1 horse Bay Storm is one of only two horses in this $300k race who looks likely to run a single digit number. She is accomplished at leaving the gate alertly from the rail and staying on. 6-1 ML odds.
The other contender likely to run a sole digit, #11 horse Caravel is the 4-5 ML favorite, She will likely be hard used from the gate to gain, at best, the 3 path.
Posted by chausseswa
on May-03 11:38 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891729]
[IP Addr= 172.69.33.238]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;the derby
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
The derby has not been very kind to me .I do much better at other tracks and other Churchill races on derby day.The reason ,bad posts, bad analysis.So here goes.The horse I like is Skinner his 3 race pattern this year to me is a siren song along with 20-1.PRACTICAL MOVE has a line I like and is 12-1 so I will use him.Skinner just confuses me as to the 2 year old line is just so bad that I just can't understand that part of it.Hit show from the rail at a big price is a use.Forte as I have said has very good numbers but the 3-1 just forces me to save with him and nothing more.I already like other races on the card so I will try and keep my play reasonable, plus there are always other tracks.It;s a great race but a difficult one at least for me.Good luck to all.
Posted by vp612
on May-03 10:37 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891727]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
kingsland
May-04
|
Probably-too-early KY Derby thoughts
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
Coin flip on rain, but the key stands regardless; due to board post length constraints, i left out all the tosses. Good luck to all!
Uses underneath
#1 Hit Show—pegged him for an 8, but may get pinballed against the rail
#5 Tapit Trice—can see trip 8s, but may lose some major ground on turn two
#8 Mage—ran a big new top last out and looks to be figuring it all out at the right time
#10 Practical Move—fast 2yo top, but looks stuck on 9 and may lose ground; may run a new top and suck up for 3rd
#14 Angel of Empire—the 8 looks decent but may be wide; BHC factor is his saving grace
Strong uses
#9 Skinner—pattern looks set for a new top; worried about ground on both turns; 20-1 is juicy
#15 Forte—beautiful sheet, but the post will leave him wide; might run a 5 and lose
#17 Derma Sotogake—drawn wide, but there is a chance he is on the lead 2w2w next to my key horse, and a 7 is plausible
Key
#2 Verifying—gifted rider; fast at 2yo on a sloppy track and just ran another top last out. Should be on or near the lead and saving ground on both turns; penciled in a 7 on his line, even though an 8 may do; needs a good start or bust, but 15-1 is fair.
Posted by ap_indy22
on May-03 5:15 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891715]
[IP Addr= 172.69.58.41]
|
9Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Gary Mc
May-04
|
RE;SAFFIE
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
THOROUGHBRED news reporting 2 Saffie horses have died one during a race and one after being vanned off at Churchill.Saffie is considering scratching Lord Miles and 6 others until necropsy reports come back.Hmm.
Posted by vp612
on May-03 4:39 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891712]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
2Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
Gary Mc
May-03
|
re;Dutrow
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
New Tops Prior to Derby
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
It's hard to recall a Derby with this many horses coming in off tops. I count 15 who are off tops, large or small, and of the remaining 5 horses, 3 have paired tops in their last race. One of the other 2 is off a tiny 1/2 point move backward. I suppose it's an effect of the point system but it is very striking this year.
Posted by rockamundo
on May-03 1:32 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891703]
[IP Addr= 172.70.130.36]
|
3Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
rockamundo
May-03
|
re;Forte
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
TAP seems to think post 15 isn't so bad, but I do.Yes horses have won from 15 to 20,it does happen.As far as his sheet line, nothing wrong with it.The odds 3-1 and post 15, plenty wrong in my book.Things have to go very well for horses out there, and as of yet I am offering no opinion ,but Forte is not one I like.
Posted by vp612
on May-02 5:56 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891681]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
re;Post positions derby
Click here to view this message
and all replies to this message
[Reply]
1- HIT SHOW. 30-1 11-DISARM. 30-1
2-VERIFYING. 15-1 12- JACES RD. 15-1
3-TWO PHILS. 12-1 13 SUN THUNDER. 30-1
4- CONF.GAME. 20-1 14- ANGEL OF EMP. 8-1
5-TAPIT TRICE. 5-1 15-FORTE 3-1* Favorite
6-KINGSBARNS. 12-1 16-RAISE CAIN 15-1
7-REINCARNATE. 50-1 17-DERMA. SOTO. 10-1
8-MAGE 15-1 18- ROCKET CAN. 15-1
9-SKINNER 20-1 19- LORD MILES. 30-1
10-PRACT.MOVE. 10-1 20- CONTINUAR. 50-1
Posted by vp612
on May-01 4:25 PM
Modify/DeleteClick here to Delete or Modify this message
[Message Id=2891643]
[IP Addr= 172.70.82.198]
|
0Clicking here displays the message topic and associated replies
|
--
|
DateFilter set to show messages created in last 4 weeks
|
|
Replies | Last Reply |
Legend (Your Last Visit: 30 May 2023 09:42)
|
No new posts since last visit
|
 New posts added since last visit
|
This board has been viewed 1245080 times since
Mar-28-2011 .
(Total Views Since Board Creation on Jun-02-2003 is 1896498.)
Questions about this board, email: [email protected]
Optimum viewing of this board requires that Cookies be enabled.
If you have problems viewing this board
Click Here
